Hi,
This is a question to the moderator, but I'm open to any informed comments based on reliability data (not just random anecdotes).  My friends and I recently had a debate about how much cars had improved over the last 40-50 years.  We all agreed that safety, performance and comfort were undoubtedly improving, but we got stuck on reliability.  Two of us (the younger two) thought that cars are still just as likely to breakdown after 70k or 120k today as they were in the 60s and 70s.  The other two felt that there had been significant changes in manufacturing technology which made a car sold in 2005 or 1995 much more likely to run to 100k or 200K than a car made in 1965 or 75.  (In their minds the change occurred in the 80s.)
CU has been collecting data for years, but the data displayed in the car reviews is always a relative rating (i.e. above/below average), meaning that it inherently can't show if the industry as a whole is improving, declining or staying the same.  Does CU have data (or does anyone have data) that shows that cars in the 60s and 70s were sent to the junkyard with fewer miles, on average, than cars from the 90s and 00s?  Is there any data out there that can support either claim?

Thanks,

I don't know about the average mileage of the junk yard arrival but I clearly remember "routine" work on cars of the '60s and '70s. Carburetor rebuilds after 25-30K. Rebuilds of master cylinders. Drum brake repairs with constant re-machining of the brake shoes. Brake failures in rain.  Weather affected starting difficulties. (Too cold, too wet or too hot.) Poor performance when going over mountainous terrain. Carrying water bags attached to the outside of the radiator when driving to Las Vegas. New mufflers every 2 or 3 years due to leaded gas and non-galvanized steel. I don't know if the lifetime of vehicles has increased, but getting to that 100K mileage is VASTLY easier.

One thing I remember was that cars a few decades ago almost always leaked oil.  The middle of each lane on the road was often visibly darker due to the oil drippings from cars passing over it.  Old VW Beetles were notorious leakers, even though they were generally among the more reliable cars of the day.

Based on what I remember of old cars, today's cars are much more reliable.  However, some items can be very difficult or expensive to fix, which may contribute as much to the owner's annoyance as things breaking.  This would include difficult to access items like light bulbs and spark plugs, timing belts that require major disassembly of the car to change, unusual size or form factor batteries that are difficult to find replacements for, special tools needed to open covers and such, parts only available as a large expensive unit instead of having the small detachable failure-prone piece available separately, etc..

Another issue is the chrome bumpers that cars used to have. These started rusting within 1-2 years of purchase, so that a relatively new car already looked old. Paint also held up very poorly in those good old days.

Yeah, I've heard all the anecdotes about all the improvements we've made and "back in my day" sort of stuff, but can any actually cite any specific evidence that this has kept cars on the road longer?

CR has presented a lot of data over the years that demonstrates improving reliability. They also point out that cars are staying on the road much longer than they used to. All of this information is on this web site and in their publications. I recall that the annual April auto issue also generally has something to say about this.

Mary

 I'll see what I can find out.

Mary

I checked with our staff. The last time we calculated an overall long term trend was about eight years ago, and it showed that reliability was indeed improving. In the 2001 April issue of CR, pages 12-13, we did a 20-year trend analysis looking at vehicles from our 1980 survey to the 2000 survey, in 5-year intervals. Average problem rates had dropped from 88 per 100 vehicles in 1980 to 20 per 100 vehicles in 2000 (check your local library for that issue, the associated graphs were quite interesting). That’s a big improvement. We have not done something similar more recently.

Jerry,
I'll have to look up that issue.  It certainly seems like problem rates were going down.   Is there any data on the length of time cars stay on the roads (i.e. an average car hit the junkyard with 80k miles from 1970 and 150k miles in 1990?)  Or is there any data to show that the amount spent on maintenance per car has been going up or down over the last 40 years?  (Based on your data that 88% of cars had problems in 1980 and 20% had problems in 2000, it seems like alot of mechanics should be going out of business...)

Thanks,

Check our High mileage club forum for some examples of cars that just keep going. Judging by the variety, it appears that many of today's cars can achieve longevity if reasonably maintained. The length of time that a car stays on the road may have more to do with changing needs, or a desire for change, than the cost of maintenance. Most recently, fuel economy became a factor also, due to the spike in fuel costs, and the Cash for clunkers program.

I conducted a survey recently on when cars get junked, and these days the average seems to range between 150k and 170k depending on the model.

If the average problem rate waas 20 PPH in 2000, then it has only improved another 15-20% in the last decade.

But there's no doubt that there were huge improvements from the 1960s an 1970s through 2000. People who remember those old cars as reliable just aren't accurately remembering what they were like.

Based on my own data, about two in three cars these days require no repairs at all in their first year. CR used to count the number of defects per new car in their road tests, and that number was often in the double digits. And I certainly remember when just about every car used to have to be taken to the dealer when a week or two old to have them fix assembly defects. Now the mode is zero assembly defects.

That's a huge change.